While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:AFCG) share price has gained 12% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 59% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
View our latest analysis for Advanced Flower Capital
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Advanced Flower Capital saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 27% per year, over the last three years. So do you think it's a coincidence that the share price has dropped 26% per year, a very similar rate to the EPS? We don't. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Advanced Flower Capital's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Advanced Flower Capital, it has a TSR of -8.7% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's nice to see that Advanced Flower Capital shareholders have gained 53% (in total) over the last year. That includes the value of the dividend. This recent result is much better than the 2.8% drop suffered by shareholders each year (on average) over the last three. We're generally cautious about putting too much weigh on shorter term data, but the recent improvement is definitely a positive. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Advanced Flower Capital is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
Advanced Flower Capital is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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