MFA Financial, Inc. MFA is slated to report third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 6. The company is likely to have registered year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings.

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In the last reported quarter, this real estate investment trust, which is primarily engaged in the business of investing in mortgage-backed securities, posted distributable earnings of 44 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.8%. Revenues were $53.49 million in the quarter, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.1%.

Over the trailing four quarters, MFA Financial surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 8.55%.

MFA Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MFA Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | MFA Financial, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Influence MFA in Q3

The mREIT sector witnessed higher volatility in the fixed-income markets, which is likely to have increased asset impairment risks and hedging mismatches for MFA in the quarter under review.

Nonetheless, a positively sloped yield curve is anticipated to have supported mortgage REITs’ valuations. With a steeper yield curve, mortgage REITs are likely to have witnessed a tangible book value increase as spreads on benchmark indices tightened during the quarter. This is likely to have increased MFA’s book value per share in the quarter to be reported. 

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.2% at the end of the third quarter from 6.86% in the second quarter of 2024 and the high of 7.31% in the third quarter of 2023. This is likely to have resulted in a rise in mortgage demand. Supported by the lower mortgage rates, refinancing activities witnessed a significant surge. Amid this, a substantial portion of MFA’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings are anticipated to have seen elevated levels of constant prepayment rates. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Residential whole loans is pegged at $165.30 million, indicating a rise of 17.6% on a year-over-year basis.  

On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75-5% for the first time since March 2020. However, the Fed kept the interest rates at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% during a major part of the quarter. Given this, the company is expected to have seen increased funding costs. This is likely to have affected net interest income growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest-earning assets is pegged at $1.20 million, suggesting a 53.7% year-over-year decline.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for MFA Financial

MFA Financial does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for MFA Financial is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFA’s third-quarter 2024 earnings has been unchanged at 41 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year rise of 2.50%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFA’s third-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $54 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 17%.

Upcoming Release Dates of Other REITs

Two stocks from the broader REIT sector, which are about to report their quarterly results, American Healthcare REIT Inc. AHR and Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. IVR.

American Healthcare REIT’s third-quarter 2024 earnings estimates have been unchanged at 32 cents over the past week. AHR is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 12.

Invesco Mortgage Capital’s third-quarter 2024 earnings estimates have been unchanged at 79 cents over the past week.  IVR is slated to report third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 5.

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MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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