Nov 8 (Reuters) - Where the U.S. dollar closes at the end of trading this week, in relation to a broken technical level, will be key for its direction next week and beyond.
The dollar was on track for ending a volatile week with a slight gain, as markets weighed the impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House and what that means for the U.S. economy and its interest rate outlook.
However the USD index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, failed to sustain Wednesday's break above the 104.719 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 106.13 to 100.15 (June to September) drop.
That is likely a bull trap, set when a market breaks above a technical level but subsequently reverses, which is usually a bearish sign and would warn of a top in the greenback. Those that are bullish need sustained trading above the 104.719 Fibo to avoid a setback in the dollar.
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(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((martin.miller@thomsonreuters.com))
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