【锂价上方空间可能受限】金十期货11月5日讯，下游淡季排产延续强势提振盘面，短期供弱需强格局无法证伪，国内碳酸锂产量近企稳，预计去库还将延续2-3周。海外锂矿企业季报期扰动有限，实质出清并未完全开始，多体现为新增资源供给放缓和成本控制，如Pilbara下调生产指引及Wodgina和Marion裁员等。中长期供过于求已体现在盘面，而价格反弹将释放上游套保需求，叠加库存处于高位，锂价上方空间可能受限。碳酸锂持仓较峰值下降约1/6，短期若缺少基本面持续超预期数据，多空双方较谨慎，大幅上涨动力可能偏弱，锂价底部震荡概率高。美国大选临近，两党对绿色能源替代倾向有别，留意事件走向影响锂价。
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