金吾财讯 | 华源证券发研指，新天绿色能源(00956)前三季度实现营收157.89亿元，同比增长20.31%；归母净利润14.95亿元，同比下滑0.74%；扣非归母净利润14.77亿元，同比增长0.04%。单季度来看，Q3营收36.52亿元，同比增长18.72%；归母净利润0.65亿元，同比下滑3.14%；扣非归母净利润0.62亿元，同比增长8.03%。该行指，三季度以来公司风电发电及上网电量逐步转好，前三季度上网电量同比下滑3.45%，较上半年（-3.73%）有所收窄。单季度来看，Q3上网电量同比-2.53%，较二季度（同比-8.03%）亦明显改善，该行预计主要系风况改善所致。根据公司半年报，今年以来风资源较往年明显较差，该行认为风速下降在一定程度上侵蚀了去年新投产装机所带来的业绩增量；若Q4风况继续好转，则全年业绩有望得到修复。该行表示，预测公司2024-2026年归母净利润分别为22.9、27.4、31.2亿元，分别同比增长3.8%、19.5%、13.8%。当前股价对应PE分别为6/5/4倍。假设公司分红率维持2023年水平，当前股价对应股息率7.0%/8.3%/9.4%。公司风电资产质量较优，天然气业务板块亦可提供稳定的现金流，双轮驱动优势明显，维持“买入”评级。
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