It's been a pretty great week for Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:YUMC) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$49.83 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were US$3.1b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.77 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yum China Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Yum China Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yum China Holdings' 37 analysts is for revenues of US$12.3b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 7.9% to US$2.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.47 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 11% to US$56.22, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yum China Holdings at US$76.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Yum China Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Yum China Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Yum China Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Yum China Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Yum China Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.