CEE MARKETS-FX steadies after US election volatility

Reuters
08 Nov 2024
CEE MARKETS-FX steadies after US election volatility

WARSAW, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Emerging Europe's currencies levelled out on Friday, holding on to most of Thursday's gains, against the backdrop of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and the dollar pulling back slightly after a surge following Donald Trump's presidential election victory.

The U.S. dollar, which had eased in the previous session as traders closed out profitable Trump-trade bets, was on track to end a volatile week with a slight gain, as markets weighed the impact of Trump's return to the White House and what that means for the U.S. economy and its interest rate outlook.

On Thursday, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as its policymakers began taking stock of what could become a more complex economic landscape when President-elect Donald Trump takes office next year.

In Poland, projections published on Friday by the central bank showed inflation peaking in the first quarter of 2025, assuming Poland's government removes a cap on household energy prices in 2025, before returning to the central bank's target range in early 2026.

On Thursday, National Bank of Poland (NBP) governor Adam Glapinski reiterated that rate-setters, who extended their pause in November, could start discussing policy easing in March if inflation peaks and the next NBP projection shows its steady return towards target.

By 0945 GMT, the Polish zloty EURPLN= slipped 0.1% to the euro, trading at 4.3210, after cutting its losses since late October ahead of the U.S. presidential election during trading on Thursday.

"Yesterday's post-election correction was probably a one-off and the market will need new impulses to deepen Thursday's movements. As a result, we expect EURPLN to trade in the range of 4.31-4.33," Poland's state-owned development bank BGK wrote in a note.

In Hungary the forint EURHUF= eased 0.2% against the euro to 405.50, calming down after wild swings earlier this week following Trump's election victory.

It is unlikely to strengthen beyond the key 400 per euro level, and is seen trading in a range of 403-407 versus the euro over the coming week, a Budapest-based trader said, adding that the Fed’s rate cut was priced in already in Thursday’s session.

"If the ECB also cuts rates that can also help us, and I do not expect the Hungarian central bank to cut interest rates at its next meeting, which could also be a forint-positive."

The trader said any U.S. tariffs on European imports would be negative for the forint, but announcements on any such moves were unlikely before Trump's inauguration in January.

Romania's central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% on Friday at its last meeting of the year and ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections.

The National Bank of Romania, which targets inflation at 1.5%-3.5%, will release new forecasts for 2024 and 2025 on Monday.

Policymakers have said they expected inflation to be higher than previously forecast and two board members have urged caution last month, driven by a pending fiscal consolidation plan.

The Romanian leu EURRON= held steady against the euro at 4.9759, within the narrow corridor it has remained in since early September.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= firmed 0.2% to 25.2350 per euro, extending gains after returning to late-October levels a day earlier.

The Czech National Bank $(CNB.AU)$ extended its year-long monetary easing campaign on Thursday as expected with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, but cautioned about further steps due to inflation pressures.

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1045 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2350

25.2735

+0.15%

-2.11%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

405.5000

404.7500

-0.18%

-5.50%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3210

4.3152

-0.14%

+0.54%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9759

4.9763

+0.01%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9300

116.9800

+0.04%

+0.27%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1667.25

1672.7300

-0.33%

+17.91%

Budapest

.BUX

76577.37

76478.67

+0.13%

+26.32%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2310.88

2310.43

+0.02%

-1.37%

Bucharest

.BETI

17386.64

17347.27

+0.23%

+13.11%

Spread

Daily

vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic

spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3430

-0.0520

+116bps

-2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6580

-0.0810

+145bps

-3bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.9380

-0.0590

+156bps

+0bps

Poland

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9080

-0.1330

+272bps

-11bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.3290

-0.0190

+312bps

+3bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.7150

0.0370

+333bps

+10bps

FORWARD

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.75

3.53

3.35

4.03

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.35

6.07

5.85

6.54

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.69

5.18

4.79

5.83

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices

**************************************************************

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Gergely Szakacs in Budapest. Editing by Jane Merriman)

((karl.badohal@thomsonreuters.com;))

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10