It's been a pretty great week for Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE:HMN) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$42.64 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$412m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.83. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Horace Mann Educators

Following the latest results, Horace Mann Educators' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.74b in 2025. This would be a notable 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 45% to US$3.71. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.64 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 5.1% to US$41.00despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Horace Mann Educators' earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Horace Mann Educators analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$39.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Horace Mann Educators is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Horace Mann Educators' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Horace Mann Educators to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Horace Mann Educators. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Horace Mann Educators going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Horace Mann Educators is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.