AMG Critical Materials N.V. (AMS:AMG) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues came in 4.1% below expectations, at US$356m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$3.12 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for AMG Critical Materials

After the latest results, the four analysts covering AMG Critical Materials are now predicting revenues of US$1.71b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. AMG Critical Materials is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$2.35 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.72b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.35 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €23.41. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on AMG Critical Materials, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €31.02 and the most bearish at €16.90 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting AMG Critical Materials' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AMG Critical Materials to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €23.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AMG Critical Materials. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AMG Critical Materials going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for AMG Critical Materials (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.