金吾财讯 | 摩根大通表示，中国房地产行业未有新消息，早前路透社报道呼吁的4万亿元房地产市场救援计划在全国人大会议期间并未实现，关于房地产的两项提及（税制改革与去库存特别地方债）也并非新内容。该行认为，政府现在更加迫切希望稳定市场，因此仍需关注当局如何加快去库存进度，例如财政补贴/低成本资金，甚至更好是建立国家级平台而非依赖地方国企。对于去库存的总资金规模，该行认为策略可能是“动态调整”，预计年度规模可能在0.5-1万亿元之间，若分五年实施，实际上与路透社报道的4万亿元相似。
除了库存购买外，如果房价再次出现大幅调整，该行认为也可能提供更多需求侧支持，如加快城中村改造现金补偿、放宽一线城市的购房限制等。该行预计短期内行业将有所喘息，但在回调时为华润置地(01109)、中国海外发展(00688)、华润万象生活(01209)、保利置业集团(00119)等优质国企提供买入机会。
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