Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 16% short of analyst estimates at US$37m. Statutory losses were US$0.10 per share, 58% bigger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Akebia Therapeutics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Akebia Therapeutics

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Akebia Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$179.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.26 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$177.5m and losses of US$0.33 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 10% to US$5.50, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Akebia Therapeutics. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Akebia Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$7.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Akebia Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.3% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 12% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. So although Akebia Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Akebia Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Akebia Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Akebia Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.