Shareholders of Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 17% to US$25.68 following its latest annual results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 20% to hit US$0.74 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products

Following the latest results, Mueller Water Products' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.36b in 2025. This would be an okay 3.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 56% to US$1.16. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.08 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$24.83, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Mueller Water Products analyst has a price target of US$27.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Mueller Water Products is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mueller Water Products' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 179 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Mueller Water Products' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mueller Water Products following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mueller Water Products analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Mueller Water Products is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.