Shareholders of Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to US$12.20 following its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$212m were what the analysts expected, Heritage Insurance Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.27 per share, an impressive 1,250% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Heritage Insurance Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Heritage Insurance Holdings' dual analysts is for revenues of US$875.5m in 2025. This would reflect a solid 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 19% to US$2.00 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$886.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.28 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 28% to US$16.00, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.3% per year. So although Heritage Insurance Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Heritage Insurance Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Heritage Insurance Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Heritage Insurance Holdings going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Heritage Insurance Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.