黄金的定价框架分长短周期,长周期美元信用为定价核心,而短周期资金面为定价核心。 1)长周期美元信用定价:1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解后,美元脱钩黄金,而1974年美国通过石油美元体系让美元继续成为全球货币,黄金本质上对标美元信用。 1980年之前,美国政府杠杆率整体回落,信用的表征以美债实际利率为主,而1980年之后,美国政府杠杆率大幅回升,美国的信用通过美国财政赤字和美债实际利率共同表征,但是...
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