Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 28% over the past week following Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LITE) latest quarterly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 19% toUS$1.21 per share. Revenues of US$336,900,000 did beat expectations by 3.6%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Lumentum Holdings after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Lumentum Holdings

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Lumentum Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.57b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 46% to US$4.42. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.52b and US$3.05 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

It will come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target rose 27% to US$76.81, with the analysts clearly more interested in growing revenue, even as losses intensify. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Lumentum Holdings analyst has a price target of US$110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Lumentum Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Lumentum Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 18% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.6% per year. So it looks like Lumentum Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lumentum Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lumentum Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Lumentum Holdings (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.