It's been a pretty great week for VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$118 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. VSE reported US$274m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.63 beat expectations, being 5.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for VSE

Following the latest results, VSE's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.26b in 2025. This would be a substantial 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 165% to US$4.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.45 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.2% to US$120. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values VSE at US$133 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that VSE is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting VSE's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect VSE to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple VSE analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with VSE (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.