金吾财讯 | 中泰国际发研报指，中国水务(00855)因应9月宣布暂停分拆自来水及管道直饮水业务上市计划，调整了发展策略，由快速新增项目转变为强化现有运营管理，以降低资本开支。是次策略调整将主要导致自来水及管道直饮水两项业务的非现金流建设收入贡献下跌。该行预计公司建设收入占总收入比例将由FY24的45.5%分别下跌至FY25-27的42.0%、41.2%、39.8%。
另一方面，自来水调价流程持续。FY24公司共有四个项目获得上调价格，其中两个为湖北汉川及湖南怀化的自来水项目，合共投运产能6.5万吨/日。
该行预期FY25-27期间公司投资活动现金流出减少。此外境内外利率处于跌势，公司较易获得有利的新增融资成本。例如8月公司发行5亿元人民币的3年期熊猫债，票面利率为3%。上述因素将给予公司未来更多空间上调分红比率。综合上述因素，该行分别降低FY25-26股东净利润预测16.6%及23.3%，并新增FY27预测。考虑到相对上次更新时的市场风险下跌，该行滚动至7.5倍FY26目标市盈率。该行将目标价由6.30港元降低至6.10港元，对应29.1%上升空间。待自来水调价及分红比率落实情况，该行不排除未来调高估值的可能性。维持“买入”评级。
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