金吾财讯 | 招商证券发研报指，据乘联会，内地10月乘用车批发273万辆，按年和按月分别升11.5%和9.1%，创历年各月新高，主要受益于渠道补库和政策补贴。新能源车方面，受补贴政策加码刺激，10月批发137万辆，按年和按月分别升55.2%和11.2%，渗透率创新高达50.1%，按年升14个百分点。该行展望11月受惠季节性加库存，且受益于政策补贴、“双十一”和年底冲销量等顺风，进入旺季高峰。该行表示，车厂避开价格竞争策略，以技术创新打造高竞争力新品。技术变革方面，吉利汽车(00175)发布超级电混技术，用GEA新能源专属架构推出银河星舰7EM-i，有超强节能、低成本等差异化竞争优势，在10万至20万元人民币价位具竞争力。小鹏-W(09868)通过智驾下探策略推出新品小鹏P7+，用纯视觉低成本智驾方案，叠加出色外观、空间，订单强劲，有望爆款。另外，中升控股(00881)与赛力斯(601127)战略合作，营运华为系问界品牌。中升有望成为问界最大经销商并打开华为系智界/享界/尊界等渠道资源。该行继续看好最受惠以旧换新及新能源车下乡的吉利汽车及比亚迪(01211)。预计明年新能源车政策仍偏正面，以旧换新仍是重要发力点。小鹏是智驾下探的领先者，成本与技术优势令产品周期重新向上。上调小鹏H股目标价至73港元。经销商首推中升控股，与华为系绑定并重整渠道网络，业务变革令基本面反转，业绩同估值弹性大。其他推荐包括理想汽车(02015)及福耀玻璃(03606)业绩稳健，短期弹性低但适合长线逢低吸纳。
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