China Data Point to Gradual Improvement, but Tariff Risk Looms -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

Nov 15, 2024

0628 GMT - China's October activity data point to a gradual improvement in growth momentum, especially on consumption, Goldman Sachs economists say. Retail sales beat market expectations, while industrial production and fixed-asset investment data slightly missed, they say. Surveyed unemployment rates edged down in October from September, GS adds. That backs its view that sequential GDP growth may accelerate from 3Q to 4Q. That said, given the potential hit from U.S. tariffs under Trump, GS recently cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% from 4.7%. It expects continued policy easing in 2025 but believes demand-side measures--especially on the fiscal and property fronts--hold the key to the effectiveness of stimulus. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 15, 2024 01:29 ET (06:29 GMT)

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Retail sales beat market expectations, while industrial production and fixed-asset investment data slightly missed, they say. Surveyed unemployment rates edged down in October from September, GS adds. That backs its view that sequential GDP growth may accelerate from 3Q to 4Q. That said, given the potential hit from U.S. tariffs under Trump, GS recently cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% from 4.7%. It expects continued policy easing in 2025 but believes demand-side measures--especially on the fiscal and property fronts--hold the key to the effectiveness of stimulus. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  November 15, 2024 01:29 ET (06:29 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Data Point to Gradual Improvement, but Tariff Risk Looms -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Data Point to Gradual Improvement, but Tariff Risk Looms -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-15 14:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0628 GMT - China's October activity data point to a gradual improvement in growth momentum, especially on consumption, Goldman Sachs economists say. Retail sales beat market expectations, while industrial production and fixed-asset investment data slightly missed, they say. Surveyed unemployment rates edged down in October from September, GS adds. That backs its view that sequential GDP growth may accelerate from 3Q to 4Q. That said, given the potential hit from U.S. tariffs under Trump, GS recently cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% from 4.7%. It expects continued policy easing in 2025 but believes demand-side measures--especially on the fiscal and property fronts--hold the key to the effectiveness of stimulus. 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Retail sales beat market expectations, while industrial production and fixed-asset investment data slightly missed, they say. Surveyed unemployment rates edged down in October from September, GS adds. That backs its view that sequential GDP growth may accelerate from 3Q to 4Q. That said, given the potential hit from U.S. tariffs under Trump, GS recently cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% from 4.7%. It expects continued policy easing in 2025 but believes demand-side measures--especially on the fiscal and property fronts--hold the key to the effectiveness of stimulus. 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