Shareholders might have noticed that MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASDAQ:MGTX) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to US$6.64 in the past week. Revenues of US$11m crushed expectations, although expenses understandably increased with statutory losses reaching US$0.55 per share, somewhat higher than what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for MeiraGTx Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MeiraGTx Holdings from two analysts is for revenues of US$172.0m in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 1,135% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.63 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$242.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.01 in 2025. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on MeiraGTx Holdings' outlook following these results, with a pretty serious reduction to next year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making next year, compared to their previous calls for a profit.

The average price target lifted 13% to US$23.25, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that MeiraGTx Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6x growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.3% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 22% annually. So it looks like MeiraGTx Holdings is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting MeiraGTx Holdings to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded MeiraGTx Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MeiraGTx Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MeiraGTx Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.