Aris Mining Corporation (TSE:ARIS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.8% to CA$5.59 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$135m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.08 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Aris Mining is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aris Mining

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aris Mining's four analysts is for revenues of US$813.2m in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 68% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Aris Mining is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.86 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$802.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.24 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$11.08, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aris Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$13.59 and the most bearish at CA$8.57 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aris Mining's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 51% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 17% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aris Mining to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$11.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Aris Mining analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aris Mining has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.