Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Mirum Pharmaceuticals outperformed estimates, with revenues of US$90m beating estimates by 10%. Statutory losses were US$0.30, 35% smaller thanthe analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mirum Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, Mirum Pharmaceuticals' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$416.5m in 2025. This would be a sizeable 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 50% to US$1.03. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$404.7m and US$0.91 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$60.45, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mirum Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$71.00 and the most bearish at US$39.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mirum Pharmaceuticals shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 28% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 73% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 22% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Mirum Pharmaceuticals. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Mirum Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Mirum Pharmaceuticals that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.