Gold reclaims more lost ground as Russia-Ukraine tensions spark flight to safety

seekingalpha
20 Nov 2024

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Gold futures rebounded for a second straight day Tuesday after falling for six straight sessions into last week, enjoying safe-haven flows sparked by geopolitical chaos.

Gold has gained 2.4% in the two sessions this week on a wave of uncertainty coming from Ukraine's use of U.S.-made long-range missiles on targets in Russia, which responded by changing its terms for nuclear response to include attacks from non-nuclear countries using weapons provided by a nuclear power.

"The overnight reports on Russia changing its nuclear doctrine following Ukraine's first long-range missile strike on Russian territory has led to some safe-haven flows in gold," TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali wrote.

Gold's recent swoon likely has attracted buying interest, "since the arguments in favor of gold haven't changed," Commerzbank's Carsten Fritsch wrote.

U.S. inflation is expected to "rise noticeably" due to the expected tariff policy of President-elect Trump, but without the Fed reacting by tightening monetary policy, and the resulting decline in real interest rates would be a positive for gold, Fritsch said, adding that further arguments in gold's favor are various geopolitical crises, persistent purchases of bullion by central banks, and the likelihood of higher budget deficits in the U.S. and other western countries.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) for November delivery closed +0.6% to $2,627.10/oz, while front-month November silver (XAGUSD:CUR) ended +0.1% to $31.208/oz, the best settlement value for both metals since November 8.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (NYSEARCA:GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)

Gold's future trajectory has split market opinions, Pepperstone's Ahmad Assiri said: The metal could sink to lower price levels if the Federal Reserve tightens U.S. monetary policy, or conversely hit fresh highs if central bank purchases stay strong into 2025.

Either way, lingering monetary policy and the broader economic outlook continue to amplify gold's appeal as a hedge against volatility, Assiri said.

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