金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，首次覆盖物流房地产板块，给予领先评级，同时首次覆盖Prologis(PLD US)和顺丰房地产投资信托基金(02191)，给予买入评级。该行认为未来几年行业受惠于多重增长动力且供应情况改善，对行业的长期前景持乐观态度。该行认为，物流地产的需求将继续受到以下因素的推动：1）电商的蓬勃发展和渗透率提高；2）冷链物流需求不断增长；3）外包物流的普及；以及4）为满足自动化和ESG的要求，对现代化设施的需求与日俱增。由于高利率环境扰乱了建设进度，许多国家的新开工项目数量也降至十年来的最低水平。该行预计，未来几年供应量下降将支撑租金水平。该行认为，在租金增长和潜在资本收益两方面推动下，物流地产可比其他房地产提供超额回报。世邦魏理仕预测，2024-28年美国现代物流地产的总回报复合年增长率为11.5%，在所有地产类型中位居第一。另外，该行相信美联储进一步降息将继续推动物流房托基金在短期内的重估和跑赢大盘。该行的研究表明，房托基金的低迷表现有望在降息开始后逆转，尤其是在降息周期开始后的12-18个月。
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