Orica (ASX:ORI) is expected to see positive earnings growth in fiscal 2025 but will face uncertainties and risks to its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook, Jarden Research said in a Friday note.

Orica reported an attributable net profit after tax of AU$524.6 million for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, up 77% from AU$295.7 million in the previous year. Sales revenue fell 4% to AU$7.66 billion from AU$7.95 billion a year ago.

Based on Orica's positive result commentary, the investment firm expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for fiscal 2025 to grow, offsetting the higher depreciation and amortization and net interest expenses guidance.

However, earnings growth for fiscal 2026 remains uncertain as Orica will not be able to pass on rising gas input and ammonium nitrate costs to customers, the investment firm said.

Jarden Research cut its fiscal 2025 earnings per share forecast for Orica by 0.7% and maintained its neutral rating and AU$18.50 price target.

Orica's shares rose past 1% in recent Monday trade.

Price (AUD): $18.30, Change: $+0.20, Percent Change: +1.10%