金吾财讯 | 钢铁股早盘向好，重庆钢铁股份(01053)涨19.35%，鞍钢股份(00347)涨10.64%，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)涨6.09%，中国东方集团(00581)涨2.61%，大明国际(01090)涨1.27%。华福证券发报指，根据钢联数据，上周247家钢厂盈利率小幅下滑至57.58%，测算钢厂螺纹钢即期毛利水平开始企稳，钢厂仍保持相当的生产动力，虽受到北方部分高炉陆续冬休减产的影响，但在盈利支撑下钢厂生产仍有韧性，铁水产量连续两周下滑后企稳回升，对原料端形成支撑。该行表示，增量政策仍在路上，四季度或进入强预期和弱现实的博弈。钢铁板块跌幅大、破净多且机构持仓低。信达证券表示，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列“稳增长”政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁出口高位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下钢铁供给总量趋紧且产业集中度持续趋强，钢铁行业供需总体形势有望维持平稳。与此同时，经济高质量发展和新质生产力宏观趋势下，特别是受益于能源周期、国产替代、高端装备制造的高壁垒高附加值的高端钢材有望充分受益。总体上，该行认为未来钢铁行业产业格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已经处于价值低估区域，现阶段仍具结构性投资机遇，尤其是拥有较高毛利率水平的优特钢企业和成本管控力度强、具备规模效应的龙头钢企，未来存在估值修复的机会，维持行业“看好”评级。
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