Nov 18 (Reuters) - The base case scenario for Citi research is for the Japanese government to intervene to buy the JPY in the 160.00 to 165.00 zone versus the U.S. dollar.
However, in a note released before Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke on Monday, Citi recognises that the rapid weakening in the JPY since October has already taken the currency pair above 155.00. The MoF will likely be preparing to intervene, but Japanese financial authorities will, if possible, probably want to prioritise the next rate hike by the BoJ.
According to Citi's view, there will likely be no intervention to buy the JPY unless USD/JPY tops 160.00, and Citi sees an increased probability that the BoJ will decide to hike to 0.5% at its meeting on Dec. 18-19 in that scenario. If this view is correct, senior BoJ officials could well start to make increasingly hawkish statements soon, so that the markets are prepared.
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(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own, editing by Ed Osmond)
((Richard.Pace@thomsonreuters.com))
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