金吾财讯 | 新能源汽车集体上行，小鹏汽车(09868)涨3.49%，蔚来(09866)涨3.34%，理想汽车(02015)涨2.32%，长城汽车(02333)涨2.08%，华晨中国(01114)涨1.06%，比亚迪股份(01211)跟涨。11月18日，记者从中国人民银行深圳市分行了解到，截至2024年9月末，深圳新能源汽车产业贷款余额达1174.7亿元，同比增长25.5%；前三季度，深圳汽车制造业增加值同比增长36.3%，其中新能源汽车产量达182.9万辆，同比增长48.1%，超过2023全年的173万辆。东吴证券表示，十一月第一周交强险符合预期（同环比+23.1%/-10.9%）。乘用车以旧换新政策效果继续彰显，2024Q4预测乘用车内需同比+14%（超预期），新能源内需同比+54%，出口同比+15%。商用车以旧换新效果静待体现，出口平稳。展望2025年我们预计政策大概率延续：汽车总需求稳中向上，新能源内需有望同比30%（渗透率超60%），L3智能化内需有望同比翻倍以上（渗透率近15%/以新能源为基数）。
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