While the USA introduced legislation relatively recently to ban imports of Russian uranium (with loopholes into 2028,) now, Russia has done the same – implementing its own ban on exports to the USA.

It reads a bit like somebody quitting before they’re fired, in this finance journalist’s view. (The move also effectively duplicates the US decision.)

As a result, the usual suspects have seen stocks rise on Monday 18 November, the start of Week 47.

Who’s gaining?

Pretty much who you’d expect. Anybody who’s been tracking markets through COVID – this journalist included – could be forgiven for being bored by the whole thing.

Predictably rising in response, we’ve got Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL), Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN), Boss Energy (ASX:BOE), SILEX Systems (ASX:SLX) and Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) all featuring in the top 15 gainers of the day as at 1.40pm Sydney time.

Sunrise, sunset

If this feels familiar, that’s because it should – we started 2024 with a geopolitically-minded uranium rally, and now, we could close out the year with one.

Swings and roundabouts.

At least it’s something to talk about that isn’t Trump, or gold, or crypto, or interest rates, or US inflation, or the expected pace of Fed rate cuts.

Yes, that’s right: we’re talking about uranium once again.

Why now?

What is perhaps worth noting is that Russia’s decision to ban uranium exports came at the same time COP29 is carrying on, and, as G20 meetings this week start.

On Monday, reports also indicated that Biden has allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Whether there was forward anticipation of that remains unclear, but there’s little else Russia could use to ‘punish’ the US in a way that could cause headaches for the country.

But that’s just me speculating.

According to Reuters, it’s more of a tit-for-tat situation.

Allegedly, the Kremlin is just reacting to Washington’s moves from late last year to ban Russian uranium.

Here’s the thing about that US push, though – it actually allows for the USA to continue receiving enriched Russian uranium through to 2028, presumably as the US develops its own capacity to make it in large enough quantities.

As for why Russia hasn’t moved to ban enriched uranium exports to the USA in the last two years is also a good question, the ultimate truth of which lies beyond the reach of any financial commentariat constituent, let alone analysts and CEOs today enjoying boosts to their share prices.

One thing is probably for sure: geopolitics and commodities will continue to intersect through 2025 with gusto as what was a globalised world continues to, if you’ll allow me to say it, seem to fall apart.

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