金吾财讯 | 招商证券发研报指，腾讯音乐(TME)第三季收入70亿元，按年恢复7%的正增长(第二季下滑2%)，符合预期。订阅收入按年增长20%(第二季按年增长29%)，符合预期。付费用户达到1.19亿，按季增加200万，略好于预期。ARPPU为10.8元，按季增加0.1元。非订阅收入按年增长20%(第二季按年增长24%)，略低于预期，主要是由于部分演唱会计划的延迟，而广告收入保持稳健，增长速度超过订阅收入。该行保持对腾讯音乐2024财年的预测大体不变，将2025及2026财年核心盈利预测分别下调8%和10%，主要反映公司战略重点更多转向ARPPU增长，订阅用户净增加较该行先前预测放缓；由于演唱会计划的延迟，演唱会相关收入增长放缓；公司继续在营销、人才团队和技术方面进行投资，导致营运费用较该行先前预测增加。该行预测集团收入2024及2025年按年增长2%和10%，核心净利润将分别按年增长24%和12%。基于盈利预测的调整，该行将腾讯音乐目标价从16美元下调至15美元，评级“增持”。
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