J.P. Morgan forecasts modest growth in 2025 and foresees limited downside risks

seekingalpha
21 Nov 2024

Avalon_Studio

While there are some potential downside risks to the broader markets as the page turns towards 2025, J.P. Morgan noted that the financial community “shouldn’t lose sight of the business cycle, which has been performing well.”

The global bank believes that Wall Street will only experience a slight downshift in overall growth during 2025 to 2%, which will also be attached to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

“Downside risks to ’25 growth should be limited by the Fed’s expected 100bp down-payment on rate cuts in 2H24,” J.P. Morgan’s Economic and Policy Research team stated in a recent investor note.

“Upside inflation risks next year should be limited by cooling wage inflation and contained inflationary expectations. While growth and inflation risks have moderated, they haven’t gone away, and may now interact with new forces on the horizon,” the financial institution added.

J.P. Morgan went on to say that it sees the FOMC cutting rates by a further 25 basis points in December and an additional 75 basis points by the end of the third quarter of 2025, bringing rates down to 3.75%.

In other news, the major averages are drifting lower on Wednesday, and for investors and traders looking to stay attuned to market movements, they may turn to market tracking ETFs.

Market Tracking ETFs: (NYSEARCA:DIA), (DDM), (UDOW), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (NASDAQ:QQQ), (QQQM), (QLD), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ).

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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