Bubbles Always Burst

History is littered with the memories of epic bubbles in various markets worldwide. “Tulip Mania” took the Netherlands by storm in the 17^th century when tulip bulb prices exploded to extraordinary heights before crashing down to earth. In the early 1980s, the billionaire Hunt brothers, believing that inflation would run rampant, attempted to corner the market in silver by acquiring roughly 30% of the privately held silver. Silver prices soared before suffering a rapid order 50% drawdown. More recently, a group of retail investors on Redditt (RDDT) message boards managed to band together to trigger a massive short squeeze in GameStop (GME), ending in a one-month gain of more than 1600% in 2021. However, GME shares would melt away from >$100 to $10 in the following months.   

“Bubble” is Not a Four-Letter Word

As you can see from the examples above, all bubbles have similarities. First, skeptics, often stubborn, are driven out of the stock as investors pile in. Then, as prices begin to rise rapidly, investors pile into shares. The bubble ends when investors and prices suffer from “irrational exuberance,” and there is a rush to the exits.

While many investors view the word bubble negatively, they should embrace it. The idea of investing is to buy at one price and sell at a higher price. A bubble simply means that prices are rising rapidly. Below are two of my favorite quotes on bubbles:

“Bubble – any asset class that goes up that you don’t own.” ~ Arthur Hogan

“When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational.” ~ George Soros

My Take on Bubbles

Rather than calling everything a bubble and saying it “won’t end well,” program yourself to participate in these meteoric moves. In other words, dance until the music stops.

Climax Tops

The caveat, of course, is that all bubbles end the same way – a massive break lower. However, the good news is that blow-offs and climactic moves can be spotted if you study history. Famous growth investor William O’Neil studied climax tops extensively and explained them best:

“Many leading stocks top in an explosive fashion. They make climax runs – suddenly advancing at a much faster rate for one or two weeks after an advance of many months. In addition, they often end in exhaustion gaps – when a stock’s price opens up on a gap from the prior day’s close, on heavy volume.”

Key Rules of the Climax Top

1.       Largest daily price run-up: A cautionary sign occurs when a stock that has rallied for months experiences its largest point increase in the move.

2.       Heaviest daily volume: Extreme volume signals that trapped shorts have capitulated while amateur longs chased the extended stock.

3.       Exhaustion gap: If a stock gaps up (trades higher in after-hours trading) multiple times, the advance is on its last leg.

4.       Climax top activity: “Sell if a stock’s advance gets so active that it has a rapid price run-up for two or three weeks on a weekly chart, or for seven of eight days in a row or eight of ten days on a daily chart.”

1999 QCOM Case Study

In 1999, no hotter stock existed than semiconductor maker Qualcomm.As the internet craze went into a frenzy, QCOM ran from ~$6 to $200 in a year! Sure enough, the move came to an end in a classic climax top:

1.       Largest point spread: On December 29, 1999, QCOM gained $39 points in a single session, marking its largest point spread to that point.

2.       Heaviest daily volume: Though QCOM didn’t trade its highest volume ever, volume on 12/29 soared 142% versus the 50-day average and was the heaviest volume in weeks.

3.       Exhaustion gap: After running for months, QCOM gapped up in price from an extended move. ***(It’s essential to decipher a gap up from a base (healthy) from a gap up from an extended move (exhaustion))***

4.       Climax top activity: From 12/13/1999 to 12/21/999, QCOM shares gained ground for seven straight sessions – a red flag.

Below is the 1999 QCOM example marked up. A good exercise is looking at each data point and matching them to the chart and the commentary.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

After topping in January 2000, QCOM shares would not see their climax top highs for another twenty years!

2024 SMCI Case Study

“The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes.” ~ Jesse Livermore

Savvy investors understand that history repeats itself on Wall Street. Using O’Neil’s rules and my historical market studies, I wrote about a commentary about how Super Micro Computer (SMCI) potentially forming a climax top on February 16^th, 2024. While I failed to call the exact top, SMCI peaked on March 8^th at $117 (SMCI trades ~$30 today.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MicroStrategy is Potentially Forming a Climax Top

Today, there is no hotter stock than leveraged bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy (MSTR). However, the stock is displaying some early signs of a climax top, including:

·       Massive volume: Volume turnover has exceeded the 50-day average for twelve straight sessions. Wednesday, MSTR was the most traded stock in the US, higher than Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA).

·       Larger point spreads: In September, MSTR traded around $200. Today, it is common for the stock to move in $50 increments in a single session.

·       Exhaustion gap: We have yet to see a huge exhaustion gap yet. However, Wednesday shares gapped higher after already being very extended. It will be a major red flag if we see two or three more gaps in the stock.

Some other caution signs include:

·       Fibonacci extension: MSTR shares are approaching the 4.236 Fibonacci extension, a target that coincides with extreme moves.

·       200% above 200-day moving average: Excessive distance above the 200-day moving average can mean an overly frothy move.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Bottom Line

MSTR is exhibiting some early signs of a classic climactic top. Climax moves are enjoyable on the way up but always end badly. The good news is that investors can learn to spot these moves and lock in gains.

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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