金吾财讯 | 招银国际发研报指，中通快递(02057)息税前利润同比增长17%至28亿元人民币，符合该行的预期。虽然3Q24净利润仅同比增长1%至24.6亿元人民币，但主要是由于3Q23的一次性退税造成高基数所致。尽管行业出现价格竞争，但中通3Q24单票毛利仍然同比增长6.5%至0.38元人民币/票。中通将全年包裹量增长指引下调至11.6-12.3%（8月份为15-18%），意味着4Q24增长7.5-10%。尽管如此，该行认为较低的包裹量目标符合中通以利润主导的增长策略。该行将2024-26年盈利预测下调5-9%,主要由于该行下调销量和单票毛利率的假设。该行将其美股/港股目标价分别下调至34.5美元/271港元，基于22倍2024年市盈率（之前为23倍），相当于历史平均水平。该行继续看好中通强劲的自由现金流能力。维持买入。
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