Severe weather, including multiple hurricanes ripping through U.S. Southeast last quarter, disrupted construction projects and weighed on timelines. However, demand forecasts remain strong across the sector over the next three years, largely due to the $1.2 trillion public infrastructure spending bill from 2021.

That has made growth stocks of many of the names in the IBD-tracked Building-Cement/Concrete/Aggregates industry group. The 12-stock group has collectively gained more than 46% this year. That's twice the advance of the S&P 500, and despite the group's charts spending a large portion of the year in consolidations.

Leading the charge are Eagle Materials and Knife River. Eagle Materials (EXP) has soared 52% higher this year. The Bismarck, N.D.-based Knife River (KNF) spun out from MDU Resources Group (MDU) in May of 2023 and quickly earned its growth stock stripes. In 2024, it has logged a 46% gain.

But the industry's big names are CRH, Martin Marietta and Vulcan Materials.

CRH (CRH) has rallied 44%. The Dublin-based CRH shifted its primary listing from London to New York on Sept. 25, 2023. The company has, for several decades, focused its attention capturing market shares in the U.S. market, largely through acquisitions, and on taking advantage of big infrastructure spending dollars.

Among the other big names, Martin Marietta (MLM) has advanced 21% in 2024. Vulcan Materials (VMC) has jumped 27%.

There are risks on the horizon. Most notable is that of the incoming President, Donald Trump, and his promise to shut down as much of the Biden Administration's spending programs as possible.

In addition, the aggregates industry recently reported a generally mixed performance for the third-quarter. However, the outlook through 2026 remains solid. Only about 20%-25% of the infrastructure bill money has so far been allocated to projects, with plenty of public dollars still set flow to construction contracts, and analysts confident that the bulk of that funding will remain intact.

Weather Vs. Growth Stocks

"Stocks have rallied lately but admittedly they were lagging for most of this year and part of that is demand has been under pressure because really tough weather conditions throughout the country," Jefferies analyst Philip Ng told IBD.

"You can't build a bridge and pave a road when you have torrential downpours," he said.

Ng added that this has led to some of the "choppy conditions and weaker demand environment" but that the "underlying demand is still quite good anchored by the big infrastructure bill."

There are several markets for the products these companies provide, whether that be cement, sand or crushed stone — known as aggregates — according to Longbow Research analyst David MacGregor. The major segments are private residential and private nonresidential, as well as public infrastructure.

However, public infrastructure is by far the biggest bucket for these companies. It makes up about 40% of the market, according to MacGregor.

"Right now the single biggest driver, if you're trying to understand growth in these companies, is going to be that public infrastructure demand — certainly for the next three years," MacGregor said.

It's All About Infrastructure Spending

The $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act along with the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have led to the largest boom in U.S. manufacturing facility construction since the 1960s. Meanwhile, total public construction spending has increased more than 33% since 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Infrastructure bill alone includes $47 billion for roads and bridges, $25 billion for airport projects and $17 billion for ports among other potential allocations.

Analysts expect infrastructure bill money to begin flowing significantly into projects in 2025 and "probably" through 2028.

Still in its formative stages, the Trump administration has threatened to quash at least some of that funding. Analyst so far doubt those threats will amount to much, because the White House would need to gain support in the Senate, where the local jobs those funds create are spun gold for senators.

Consensus views project Martin Marietta earnings will grow 24% vs. 2023 levels to $23.86 per share by 2026. Vulcan yearly EPS is expected to hit $11.88, up 70% compared to last year, according to FactSet. Meanwhile, CRH could see annual profit ballooning nearly 100% to $9.19 per share by 2029.

"The outlook for these businesses tends to be pretty good right now in part because in the infrastructure space you have a lot of stimulus money that has been injected into the economy over the last four or five years," MacGregor said.

Data Centers And AI

There are a number of powerful trends also helping to drive private-sector spending through the next several years.

Aggregates companies could see additional gains if a lower interest-rate environment stimulates homebuilding and private warehouse and other industrial construction projects, according to analyst projections.

"The private sector nonresidential construction has been mixed but generally speaking, on the heavy side, I think the prospects look good with the redomiciling and reshoring of manufacturing coming back to the U.S.," MacGregor said.

Then there is also the surging demand from big technology companies to build data centers to support their artificial intelligence (AI) growth.

"Data centers as a source of demand for stone will continue to grow," MacGregor said, pointing out that the nonresidential construction market makes up about mid- to high-single-digit percentages of companies' sales.

The power production facilities needed to generate electricity for those data centers also tend to require large volumes of concrete.

"There (are currently) just very strong secular growth drivers here and these are generally not thought of being those types of companies," he added.

Cement, Aggregates And Duopolies

The cement and aggregates industry is also benefiting from a strong pricing environment. Aggregates suppliers are currently seeing double-digit annual price growth, while historically the sector has seen around 3%-5% price growth, even as unit volumes have gone down, according to MacGregor.

Ng agreed, saying that the pricing piece is going to be a big earnings driver in 2025 and beyond.

"If you're building a highway, you need to put down stone as the foundation. If you're building a skyscraper, stone goes into the cement and into the foundation work," MacGregor said. "There's no cheap alternative."

Aggregates and cement are in some ways very similar and in some ways quite different. Both are expensive to transport.

Cost constraints limit the delivery distance for aggregates to about 50 miles. Cement can still turn a profit inasmuch as a 150-250 mile radius, MacGregor explains.

This means that there may be only two or three players within a geographic specific area. As a consequence, there generally tends to be an "oligopolistic pricing environment locally," according to MacGregor.

"In some cases it's a local duopolistic pricing environment," MacGregor said. "The bottom line is it's favorable for the provider of the stone and there isn't a cheap alternative to it."

MacGregor said that higher prices but lower volumes should mean there will be some improvement on margins for the companies in the space.

"From an investment standpoint the prospects for both the aggregates and the cement business are very strong," he said.

Growth Stocks And Then Some

For much of the year, aggregates suppliers didn't look like growth stocks. Vulcan and Martin Marietta experienced consolidation from March to November. CRH snoozed from March through a late-August breakout.

Shares of CRH are currently extended and Vulcan pulled back to retest a buy point. Martin Marietta has pulled back to its converged 10- and 40-week moving averages.

Eagle Materials broke out of its five-month base in mid-September. Knife River ran up almost 26% through mid-April. It then built a base and resumed its advance in September. Eagle and Knife River are both poised for rebounds from 10-week support.

Summit Materials (SUM), a Denver-based aggregates supplier, is extended after a Nov. 24 breakout. It is up 26% for the year. Among the group's more thinly traded growth stocks, U.S. Lime & Minerals (USLM) has a year-to-date gain of more than 200%.

The Dallas-based outfit has a best-possible 99 Composite Rating from IBD, and it is currently finishing off a three-weeks tight chart pattern.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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