It's been a pretty great week for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$96.74 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$5.1b were what the analysts expected, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.17 per share, an impressive 31% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$21.9b in 2026. This reflects an okay 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$4.24, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$21.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.21 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 8.4% to US$95.01despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$110 and the most bearish at US$63.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.