金吾财讯 | 国信证券发研报指，贝壳(02423)2024Q3收入端实现GTV交易总额7368亿元，同比+12%，环比-12%；营业收入226亿元，同比+27%，环比-3%。利润端，2024Q3，公司实现经调整归母净利润18亿元，同比-17%，环比-34%；经调整归母净利率7.9%，毛利率23%，同环比均回落。该行表示，24Q3公司存量房业务GTV为4778亿元，同比+9%，环比-16%；收入62亿元，同比-1%，环比-15%。2024Q2，公司存量房业务货币化率1.30%，同比下降一方面是因为结构性因素，链家交易额的占比下降，另一方面2023年9月起链家在北京下调了存量房佣金费率，再往后基数影响会消退；存量房业务贡献利润率41.0%，环比降低，主要由于链家经纪人数量增加及员工福利改善带来固定薪酬成本增加。该行续指，受政策节奏影响，公司三季度营收利润环比回落，但展望四季度将会显着回升。该行维持此前的盈利预测，预计公司2024-2025年经调整净利润分别为90/92亿元，每股收益分别为2.50/2.54元，对应当前股价PE分别为18.3/18.0倍，维持“优于大市”评级。
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