The recovery rally in the gold market is likely to take a breather, Commerzbank Research said, while it sees catch-up potential for platinum.

Citing the Swiss Federal Customs Authority's published data on gold exports in October, the Bank noted that, deliveries to China were significantly weaker at just 5 tons, and virtually no gold was exported to Hong Kong.

On the other hand, there was an increase in exports to India. However, the level in October was still comparatively low at 11.7 tons. Slightly more gold was delivered to the U.S. than in the previous month.

"Very surprising is the strong increase in Swiss gold exports to the U.K. to 31.9 tons... All in all, the picture of subdued gold demand in Asia is confirmed, while gold demand in Western countries is picking up," commodity analyst at Commerzbank Carsten Fritsch said.

Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) rose ~6% in the previous week, supported by safe-haven demand amid fears of an escalation in the war in Ukraine, and gained 31% this year. It was down -1.81% to $2,666.80 an ounce on Monday, pressured by profit-taking after a five-session rally.

Silver (XAGUSD:CUR) has also risen significantly this year following the gold price, trading almost 30% higher than at the beginning of 2024.

"The picture is different for the platinum group metals, which are cheaper than at the beginning of the year. This is another reason why they have catch-up potential for the coming year."

The price of platinum (XPTUSD:CUR) in particular should rise significantly, as the market will likely be in deficit for the third year in a row in 2025, analyst Barbara Lambrecht said.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (RING), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (NYSEARCA:PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)