金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，医药行业板块行情拐点已至，2025年关注创新+基本面复苏两条主线：医药板块在2024下半年终结了多年跑输大盘的颓势，该行看好2025年延续这一趋势的机会。该行认为：1)短期内，宏观环境复苏+降息周期有望驱动整体板块反弹的β机会；2)α机会可归纳为两条主线：a)创新能力突出且兼顾产品出海潜力；b)利空出尽后的估值底部+业绩反转的戴维斯双击机会。该行指，1)创新药出海交易和产品销售驱动价值回归：1)跨境 BD/收并购落地、海外临床/监管进展；2)全链条利好政策；3)医保收支情况改善趋势下的新增谈判品种和后续销售放量。推荐康方生物(09926)、传奇生物(LEGN US)、云顶新耀(01952)、康诺亚(02162)等。2)处方药业绩增速和估值持续底部反弹：集采和合规整治影响递减叠加新大单品上市放量，港股龙头收入和净利润增速有望重回或稳定在双位数。重点推荐先声药业(02096)、中国生物制药(01177)。该行也建议关注股息率高、有望受益于行业基本面改善的医药商业流通标的。3)CXO曙光已现：生物安全法案的不确定性开始反转，2024年2季度以来海外投融资持续回暖、订单复苏势头明显，CXO行业景气度有望逐步触底回升。推荐细分赛道龙头药明合联(02268)和金斯瑞(01548)。4)民营医疗服务变局中优选高质量民营医院标的：财政宽松、医保预付制度施行，推荐低基数反弹确定性强、竞争格局较好的专科标的如海吉亚医疗(06078)，同时关注消费属性较强的民营医疗服务和医美标的。
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