The Big Six Canadian banks are one week away from reporting their fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.

UBS notes that investors sentiment has improved on Scotiabank and Royal Bank, and deteriorated on National Bank & TD over the past month. The data suggests that sentiment has shifted more negative M/M and over the past quarter in National Bank, notes UBS. The data also suggests that sentiment has shifted more negative M/M on TD amidst BSA/AML issues and last month's announcement of an asset cap on its U.S.-subsidiary.

According to UBS, National, BMO and CIBC have the largest difference in their current crowding score relative to their 1-year average score. "Given NA has the largest dislocation, we believe meeting the mark in terms of F2025 consensus expectations would be a positive for share performance." With a meaningful drop in the crowding score since the end of September, BMO may be positioned with a positive setup when the credit outlook improves.

CIBC's crowding score has deteriorated over the past 3-months and is below its 1-year average score, despite PTPP strength and credit quality holding up better than expected last quarter, UBS notes.