【集运欧线：策略上可适当关注基差收敛机会】金十期货11月27日讯，集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内跌幅达5.00%，现报2563.1点。一德期货观点：目前市场交易驱动为现货调降运价与地缘局势缓和预期，现货报价方面，韩新海运跟随下调12月初运价至2900美元/TEU和 5400美元/FEU，马士基12月3日上海-汉堡订舱运价调至2860美元/TEU和5200美元/FEU，大幅低于此前其宣涨幅度，给市场情绪带来利空影响，按照目前主流船商估算EC2412估值约为3500点左右，较前期估值明显下调，策略上可适当关注基差收敛机会。现货运价的下调反映12月初订舱情况或弱于市场预期，此外，据现货端反馈，在特朗普加征关税的预期下美西航线暂未出现抢运现象，表明需求端依然偏弱。消息面，美称以色列和黎巴嫩已接受停火协议，过渡期为60天，这对远月合约形成利空影响，策略上关注04合约沽空机会以及2508-2510的正向套利操作机会。
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