金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，中国内地房地产市场将止跌回稳，房企温和复苏。该行预计2025年整体购房情绪将持续温和复苏，一手市场供应量减少会缓解开发商降价压力，一手价格可望稳定在现在水平。该行相信2025年成交面积有望同比上升15%。该行看见市场回稳，如果银十月的销售势头延续到明年春节后，会有助更多的房企从财务上及基本面上“止跌回稳”。投资建议：该行偏好排序为：估值不高的国企/国企背景开发商>拥有一/二线城市土地储备的民企龙头>其他民企开发商。香港房地产方面，预计2025年住宅租金上涨5%，中小户型价格上涨3-5%。另外，北上出行消费趋势也渐稳定，该行预计零售市场将温和复苏。同时，该行认为办公楼最差情况已过，但空置率仍居于高位，限制了办公楼市场的反弹空间，预计中央商务区的甲级办公楼租金将在2025年同比下降约3-5%。投资建议：降息是未来12-18个月一个正面的潜在催化剂，同时房地产信托短期内可能加入港股通是另一个行业重估的催化剂。该行偏好：零售房地产投资信托>低负债住宅开发商>零售业主>拥有大量办公楼业务的房地产投资信托基金/业主/开发商；该行选择领展(00823/买入)作为该行对中国香港房地产的首选。
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