金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，康宁杰瑞制药(09966)HER2 管线产品矩阵成型中，巨大商业化价值待兑现：1）JSKN033的I期数据在SITC大会上首次公布并入选LBA，显示在HER2表达（IHC≥ 1+）或HER2 突变的NSCLC患者中达到80%的DCR。2）JSKN003治疗铂耐药卵巢癌和HER2阳性（IHC 3+）实体瘤（乳腺癌除外）的早期临床数据在ESMO 大会上公布，ORR分别达到56.8%和75.0%，在HER2 IHC 0铂耐药卵巢癌患者中的ORR达到52.9%。3）KN026的1L乳腺癌（+白蛋白多西他赛）近期启动III期，预计首个适应症≥2L GC/GEJ（+化疗）有望于2025 年在中国提交NDA。该行预计KN026和JSKN003有望在中国合计产生近50亿元的峰值销售额。该行上调2024年收入预测至6.57亿元，以反映JSKN003授权合作的相关首付款，但考虑到行业合规整治影响恩维达销售、个别在研药物上市节奏推迟，下调2025年收入预测至4.50亿元，并下调恩维达和KN046的经POS调整销售峰值至11亿/5亿元。同时，该行大幅下调2024-25 年研发和销售费用预测。最后，该行上调 WACC 至12.0%，得到最新的DCF目标价5.00港元(原7.4港元)，对应16%未来12个月潜在升幅，维持中性评级。
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