金吾财讯 | 浦银国际发研报指，面对行业普遍的高基数以及境内业务关闭低效店的影响，华住集团(01179)3Q24整体以及境内业务(Legacy-Huazhu)收入分别同比增长2.4%以及1%，达成了管理层给出的收入增速下沿(整体营收同比增长2%-5%；境内业务收入同比增长1%-4%)。管理层给出4Q24收入指引：整体以及境内业务收入分别同比增长1%-5%，暗示全年收入增速在7.4%-8.5%的区间，该行认为公司达成4Q24收入指引的确定性较高。该行续指，华住集团3Q24境内业务(Legacy-Huazhu)RevPAR为256元，同比下降8.1%。其中，ADR同比下降7%，主要是由于上年暑期爆发式出行拉高了基数以及今年3季度恶劣天气影响，而OCC则相对稳定，同比下降1ppt。该行认为，进入4季度，高基数对于运营指标的影响将有所缓解，带动4Q24的RevPAR降幅环比缩窄。展望2025年，该行认为随着酒店住宿市场供需关系更为平衡、中国文旅产业的发展以及在中国开放免签政策的刺激下，明年RevPAR将同比企稳回升。该行适当下调了华住2024E-2026E的盈利预测。考虑到华住集团优于市场的的运营能力，以及酒店行业估值中枢上移，该行基于14x2025EEV/EBITDA(相较国际酒店集团2025EEV/EBITDA平均值20%的折价)对华住进行估值，并调整港股目标价至32.9港元，美股目标价至41.1美元。维持“买入”评级。
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