金吾财讯 | 兴业证券发研报指，中通快递(02057)Q3收入107亿元人民币，同比增长17.6%，其中快递服务/货运代理服务/物料销售分别同比变动+18.1%/+0.8%/+27.6%。快递服务收入占比91.9%，2024Q3收入增长主要受包裹量同比增长15.9%(2024Q3包裹量87.2亿件)及单票价格增长1.8%带动，单票价格增长主要受益于直客收入占比提升。受益于电商平台退货件占比持续提升，直客业务收入(含派费收入)增长122.1%，此外随着系统性地加深与各大电商平台在逆向物流、偏远地区配送及增值服务等方面的合作，散单件实现了超过40%的同比增长。该行表示，公司下调对全年包裹量的预期，预计2024年全年实现包裹量337-339亿件，同比增速位于11.6%-12.3%之间，上个季度的预期为同比增长15%-18%。截至2024Q3，中通快递市占率为20.0%，环比增加0.4个百分点。该行续指，进入四季度，行业整体单票价格企稳，此外中通有望通过高单价的散单件、逆向件占比提升保障单票收入。该行预计公司2024-2026年归母净利润分别为95.03/111.24/125.19亿元人民币，同比增长8.6%/17.1%/12.5%，维持“增持”评级。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.