智通财经APP获悉，航空股连续多日下挫，截止发稿，中国国航(00753)跌3.63%，报4.51港元；首都机场(00694)跌2.23%，报2.63港元；南方航空(01055)跌2.17%，报3.61港元；东方航空(00670)跌0.84%，报2.35港元。
消息面上，12月3日，离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘不久就跌破7.3关口，随后跌破7.31，最低触及7.3148，创去年11月来新低。此外，市场憧憬OPEC+将决定进一步推迟恢复原油产能，隔夜油价创两周最大单日涨幅。中信建投指出，航空业的关键驱动变量包括航班量、客座率、票价、油价、汇率。该行指出，需求或将受益财政政策，成本或将受益油价下行，汇率仍存压力。
华泰证券则指出，24年航空供给增速高，为追求客座率修复，航司降价促量力度大，使得收益水平回落。但展望25年，我们认为航空将迎来盈利周期。首先由于机队引进受限+日利用率提升空间有限，我们预测供给增速从24E的16.9%放缓至25E的5.4%；其次近期一揽子政策或将通过驱动宏观复苏，边际提振民航需求，我们预测25E同增7.4%，产生供需缺口；另外油价下跌有望降低航司燃油成本，叠加全票价市场化改革，航司盈利弹性有望释放。
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