nCino's (NCNO) organic subscription revenue for fiscal Q4 and fiscal 2026 "may be at risk" amid a gradual mortgage acceleration, but the upcoming Trump presidency could spur demand, Morgan Stanley said Monday in a note.

The investment firm said it agrees with the view that a Trump administration "could spur an acceleration in bank technology spending and M&A" as net interest income and loan growth are "set to inflect" in 2025 and 2026 given prospects of regulatory easing.

Following Trump's win in 2016, Morgan Stanley analysts said they "saw a multi-year step-up in [net interest income], which could occur again particularly with the heightened focus on easing regulatory burdens."

Morgan Stanley also said nCino's recent acquisition of UK-based SaaS platform FullCircl could add about $15 million to fiscal 2026 subscription revenue, based on the assumption that the business grows at the same pace in both calendar years 2024 and 2025.

The firm has raised its estimates for the company, taking into account FullCircl's contribution in fiscal 2026 and "more robust" incremental margins in both fiscal 2027 and 2028.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $41 from $30 "as we roll forward our primary reference year to FY27 and layer in the 9% increase to our FY27 adjusted EBITDA estimate." It has an equal-weight rating on the stock.

Price: 42.44, Change: +0.45, Percent Change: +1.07