金吾财讯 | 招银国际发研指，MSCI中国医疗指数年初至今累计下跌17.6%，跑输MSCI中国指数30.1%。受益于海外降息以及国内宏观环境改善，医药作为高弹性行业有望跑赢市场。新版医保目录已公布，多款重磅国产创新药纳入，该行预期续约品种价格降幅较温和，体现医保基金持续大力支持创新药。今年9、10月份，基本医疗保险（统筹基金）的收支结余显著改善。随着政策焦点转向刺激经济，该行认为医保基金收支状况有望大幅改善。医保基金监管趋严，同时满足院内、刚需、医保三个特点的产品将持续增长。医疗设备更新政策有望加速落地，推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。
该行预期，受益于医保资金改善的板块包括：1）创新药，将获得更全面的医保覆盖；2）医疗服务机构，应收改善、坏账改善；3）商业流通，应收改善，收入增速提升；4）医疗设备，招标改善。看好百济神州(06160)、信达生物(01801)、科伦博泰生物(06990)、联影医疗(688271)、药明康德(02359)、巨子生物(02367)、三生制药(01530)。
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