金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，展望2025年，国内线收益管理回归常态&国际枢纽建设&航油成本下降等积极因素持续累积，不同以往，传统“后周期”表现的航空周期有望前置。复盘历史，该行认为本轮上行周期的最大不同在于行业已经历连续5年的飞机低引进，2020~23年引进增速较2010~18年CAGR低8.3pcts。从航司、飞机制造商和经营租赁3个层面分析，该行判断市场未充分反映供给强约束。对比2014~15年，航油成本下降或为航司利润端释放最直接的因素，2024年11月航油出厂价较前5月均价下降14.8%。期待2025年航油压力缓解推动航司利润释放。2025年国内线收益管理有望回归常态，同时近期免签国家持续扩容等积极政策信号不断，2025年春运有望成为航空周期试金石。
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