TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Despite hitting its record high of 7,915, the Indonesian stock exchange (IDX) experienced high volatility throughout 2024. In 2025, Mirae Asset Sekuritas projects that IHSG could reach 8,000 amidst the potential trade war between the United States and China.
Head of Research & Chief Economist Mira Asset, Rully Arya Wisnubroto, mentioned several factors that could potentially drive IHSG to increase next year. "The positive prediction for the domestic capital market is primarily supported by the strength of two domestic macroeconomic factors, namely stable inflation and maintained purchasing power," said Rully at the Investor Network Summit 2024, Thursday, December 5, 2024 as cited from his official statement.
He stated that Indonesia has shown a downward trend in inflation supported by stable food prices. Rully predicted that food prices would remain stable in 2025 as long as there are no extreme weather disturbances affecting food production.
Furthermore, he estimated that the planned increase in value-added tax (VAT) to 12 percent would not significantly affect the capital market, as long as essential commodities are excluded from the tax hike.
He continued that controlling inflation could maintain purchasing power, especially in the food sector. "We are optimistic that consumer spending (household expenditure) will be maintained and grow steadily in the coming year," said Rully.
He believed that, considering various macroeconomic factors, the Indonesian capital market still has a positive outlook for 2025. Appropriate policies and synergy from all stakeholders are expected to address the challenging global conditions.
Regarding global factors, Rully predicted that the US economy's more inward-looking orientation could potentially trigger a trade war with its main trading partners, disrupting global trade activities. "Additionally, the policy is also expected to trigger inflation in the US and narrow the room for reducing the benchmark interest rate of the US Central Bank," he said.
He mentioned that this could affect emerging economies, including Indonesia. However, from a market perspective, he predicted continued positive growth.
HAMMAM IZZUDDIN | AISHA SHAIDRA
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