金吾财讯 | 招银国际发研报指，2024年国家医保目录结果公布，三生制药(01530)特比澳成功续约并新增儿童ITP适应症、伊尼妥（HER2单抗）成功续约，盐酸纳呋拉啡口崩片新进入医保目录，用于改善血液透析患者的瘙痒症。由于医保基金持续支持创新药，该行预期公司续约品种的价格将较为稳定，为公司的稳健增长提供支撑。该行认为，受益于适应症的拓展和渗透率的提升，特比澳在2025E有望持续快速增长。该行指，公司在研管线推进顺利，多款创新品种已进入NDA或临床III期。该行预期，新产品将自2026年开始逐步成为公司重要的增长引擎。该行预计公司2024E和2025E收入将分别同比增长12.8%和12.2%，当前市值对应6.6倍2025E PE，估值极其吸引。该行预期公司将维持30%的分红比例，目前股价对应2025E 股息率为4.5%。小幅上调目标价至9.81港元（WACC：11.83%，永续增长率：2.0%），对应9.8倍25年市盈率。
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